Death rate is not a good metric here, use reduction in life expectancy (measured in months) instead to get a better picture. Since more than x% (not sure what that x is but it is very high) who died were above 75 years old, the reduction in life expectancy, on average, is much less dramatic than numbers based on raw death rate.
Also, sharpening the curve rather than flattening it, offers benefits: a quick resolution with more deaths short-term for sure (mostly older people costing a lot of money in social security expenditures — the average age of people dying in Italy is above 80) with much less economic impact and fewer total death count long term, see below why.
Flattening the curve and closing businesses result in massive bankruptcies and unemployment, as most restaurants and small businesses can’t afford to be closed for 30+ days. The result is a many deaths caused by suicide, homelessness, unemployment, depression and drug abuse — a result of having lost everything due to financial collapse. Add the rise of a black market selling unsafe products, sick people unable to pay for healthcare because they have no money (choosing to eat bread rather than going to the doctor — they can’t afford both), increased crime as you need money to feed your family, riots, the risk of a revolution, tons of people not complying and not enough police to enforce the new rules, not enough prisons to sent all the non-compliant, and smart people and institutions shorting the stock market to death, further depressing the economy, as it is an easy game to make easy money now, simply exploiting the panic of everyone in sell mode.
Flattening cause fewer deaths caused by the virus, but a bunch of indirect deaths caused by financial collapse that would otherwise be spared if instead one chooses to sharpen the curve or at least not intervene drastically. Overall, it is unclear if flattening will save more or less people. And those who won’t die as an indirect result of financial collapse, may suffer long term financial impact or ruin.
More here: The case for open data for AI in the fight against COVID-19
